The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail but Some Don't
Nate Silver· Published 2015
An investigation into the world of forecasting and how to distinguish meaningful information from the vast amount of daily data.
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Why It's On My Shelf
Silver emphasizes uncertainty as a feature, not a flaw, of complex systems. The distinction between confidence and probability is especially useful for technology forecasting. CIOs can apply this thinking when evaluating vendor claims, roadmaps, and long range bets where certainty is impossible.
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